Bill Gunderson’s Thursday 9/12/19 Daily Market Observations

Thursday 9/12/19=DJIA +45 NASDAQ +24

 

Minnesota Oct. 15-16-Bill will be at the Radisson Bleu-Mall of America. Call or visit our website to make an appointment.

 

A good day for many Best Stocks Now.

Daily Wrap: It was another good day in the market today. An easing of tension in the trade war with China and more aggressive stimulus by the ECB all helped.

Every sell off in the leadership stocks over the last ten-plus years has been a buying opportunity. It looks like this is another one.

Trading: I did not do any buying at all today. I dumped one large position. I do not like the way that it was trading. Paypal, Blackstone, and Shopify all had good days.

Tweets: I was active on Social Media today. I sent out tweets on FNKO, BX, BABA and AAPL. I had a new article published on Seeking Alpha about Lululemon. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4291193-lululemon-still-buy

 

This news helped the market today.

 

Trump postpones China tariffs by two weeks

  • Stock futures rise ~0.5% after Pres. Trump tweets he will delaying raising tariffs on $250B in Chinese goods to Oct. 15 from Oct. 1 as a "gesture of good will" to China.
  • Trump say the delay came "at the request of the Vice Premier of China, Liu He, and due to the fact that the People's Republic of China will be celebrating their 70th Anniversary."
  • The planned tariff hikes would cover mostly non-consumer items such as materials businesses use to produce goods, with the levy going to 30% from 25%.
  • Earlier today, China had released two lists of U.S. products to be exempt from higher tariffs starting Sept. 17.

 

The ECB cut rates again.

 

ECB trims rates, restarts QE

  • Kind of as expected, the ECB cut its deposit rate by 10 basis points to -0.50%.
  • Alongside, QE will be restarted on Nov. 1 to the tune of €20B per month - that amount might be a bit of a disappointment to those looking for something more dovish. On the other hand, the QE program is open-ended, and that's going to excite the dovish fans.
  • The euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) is volatile, but heading modestly lower in the minutes since the decision was announced. European stocks (NYSEARCA:FEZ) are adding to gains, the Stoxx 50 now ahead 0.7%.
  • Mario Draghi's press conference begins at 8:30 ET.

 

European bond yields plunge after new ECB stimulus

  • The ECB minutes ago announced a restarted QE program. The monthly amount (€20B) isn't that exciting, but the fact that the bond-buying is open-ended (i.e. no end date or total amount set) seems very dovish.
  • The Italian 10-year government bond yield is down a whopping 16 basis points to a new record low of 0.80%. The German 10-year Bund yield is off seven basis points to -0.63%.
  • That reaction is spreading to the U.S., where the 10-year Treasury yield is down five basis points to 1.69%. TLT +1.1%, TBT -2.2% premarket

 

CPI comes in as expected.

 

Core inflation perkier than expected in August

  • August Consumer Price Index+0.1% in-line with consensus, +0.3% prior.
  • Core CPI +0.3% vs. +0.2% consensus, +0.3% prior.
  • On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is now at 1.7%, in-line with consensus and 1.8% previously. Core inflation is now running 2.4% vs. 2.3% expected, and 2.2% previously.

 

No recession signs here.

 

Jobless claims hits 5-month low

  • Initial Jobless Claims -15K to 204K vs. +215K consensus, 219K prior (revised).
  • Continuous Claims: -4K to 1.670M vs. 1.690M consensus, 1.674M prior (revised).

 

How about that!

 

U.S. becoming world's top oil exporter - IEA

  • "Booming shale production has allowed the U.S. to close in on, and briefly overtake, Saudi Arabia as the world's top oil exporter," the IEA said in its closely-watched monthly report.
  • It comes at a time when the U.S. is actively pursuing "energy dominance," putting downward pressure on prices at a time when the market is already struggling to cope with too much supply.
  • "The installation of the necessary pipelines and terminals is continuing apace, which will ensure that the trend continues."

 

Uber disagrees with California.

 

California contractor law doesn't apply, says Uber

  • Uber (NYSE:UBER) CLO Tony West says the company won't treat contractors as employees under the newly approved California bill.
  • West says Uber's business is "serving as a technology platform for several different types of digital marketplaces" and not providing rides, which means drivers aren't a core part of the business and can remain independent when the law goes into effect in January.
  • West also notes that Uber is "no stranger to legal battles."

 

More bad news for Juul.

 

Federal ban possible on flavored vaping products

  • The Trump administration is prepping a ban on flavored e-cigarettes as federal agencies probe an outbreak of a lung problem that killed at least six people and reportedly led to the sickness of hundreds of others. A potential link between THC vaping and lung disease is at the heart of the investigation.
  • President Trump and U.S. Health Secretary Alex Azar have both confirmed that a ban is possible after the vaping issues are investigated.
  • The potential for federal action has been telegraphed to investors over the last few weeks.
  • Related stocks: Altria (NYSE:MO), Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM), British American Tobacco (NYSE:BTI), Vector Group (NYSE:VGR), Imperial Brands (OTCQX:IMBBY) and privately-owned Juul (JUUL).

 

Lookout China!

 

Juul enters China with online store openings

  • Amid a crackdown on vaping in the U.S., Juul (JUUL) is entering China, with online storefronts on e-commerce sites owned by Alibaba and JD.com.
  • Juul, in which tobacco giant Altria (NYSE:MO) owns a 35% stake, has been launching its products in international markets such as South Korea, Indonesia and Philippines.
  • It recently raised over $750M in an expanded funding round.

 

Another weed stock flop.

 

 

 

Aurora Cannabis -10% as Q4 revenues, margins fall shy

  • Aurora Cannabis (NYSE:ACB) is down 9.9% postmarket after revenues and margins disappointed in its fiscal Q4 earnings report.
  • Revenues rose 52% sequentially to just under C$99M, but fell C$4.6M short of consensus, while gross margin on cannabis net revenue ($94.6M, up 61% Q/Q) came in at 58%.
  • EBITDA loss of C$11.7M was an improvement from last quarter's loss of C$36.6M.

 

Stock of the day today! Great chart and breakout.

 

Funko +7% after positive read-through from GameStop earnings

  • Funko (FNKO +7.5%) rallies after GameStop reports a 21% Y/Y increase in its collectible business. Jefferies reminds that GameStop's collectibles sales are a relevant proxy for demand for Funko products.
  • Funko was all but named during the part of the GameStop earnings call (transcript) that delved into the collectibles upside.
  • "We see further opportunity in expanding our double-digit growth collectibles category," stated GameStop execs.

 

Another doomed mall-based retailer?

 

 

 

Tailored Brands trashed after dismal Q3 guidance

  • Tailored Brands (NYSE:TLRD) -25.8% after-hours after reporting mixed Q2 results, suspending its quarterly dividend and warning of lower profits in Q3.
  • Overall Q2 revenues fell 4.1% Y/Y to $789.5M, including a 4.9% decline at Men's Wearhouse to $423.5M and a 3.7% drop at Jos. A. Bank to $166.1M.

 

A good day for Blackstone. I wrote about it recently.

 

Blackstone closes biggest-ever $20.5B real-estate fund

  • Blackstone (NYSE:BX) has raised the biggest-ever real-estate fund, closing at $20.5B in commitments.
  • That comes even as questions arise about whether it's a tight time in the real estate cycle to seek returns.
  • The new fund tops Blackstone's own record of $15.8B closed in 2015. Blackstone had previously accounted for five of the top 10 biggest real-estate funds, the WSJ notes.
  • The company has pursued a strategy of buying, fixing and selling commercial properties. The former head of the business, Jonathan Gray, is now president and chief operating officer and is widely seen as heir apparent to CEO Stephen Schwarzman.
  • Shares are down 1.3% after hours.

 

Bill Gunderson

Bill Gunderson

Bill Gunderson is a wealth manager, syndicated financial talk show host, and author of the Best Stocks Now -- one of the top 10 best selling financial aps in the world.

He is a frequent guest on local and national media, including CNBC, Fox Business, Fox News, Bloomberg, Barron's, Forbes, and others.

His wealth management business caters to high net worth individuals clients all over the world. He would be happy to look at your portfolio.

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