Bill Gunderson’s Daily Fishing Report for Thurs. 8/15/19

Thursday 8/15/19=DJIA +95   NASDAQ -3

No Recession Yet.

Daily Wrap: The market at least stabilized on today. I would expect another volatile day on Friday. It seems a lot of investors don’t lake to be long over the weekend. My current stance on the market has not changed at all since newsletter last Saturday. Read the Macro Outlook section of the newsletter.

I am already beginning work on this week’s newsletter. Stay tuned.


Here is once again a reminder of what happened on Wednesday:


Stocks tank as warning signs point to global economic slowdown

  • Investors went running for the hills on spiking fears of a recession after the U.S. Treasury yield curve temporarily inverted for the first time in 12 years.
  • The Dow dropped 800 points or 3.05%, its worst percentage decline of the year; only three stocks on the S&P 500 - Newmont Goldcorp, Ventas and Evergy - finished with gains.


The jobs market remains strong. One of the major signs of a looming recession is a weakening jobs market.


Jobless claims rose 9K to 220K

  • Initial Jobless Claims +9K at 220K vs. +208K consensus, 211K prior (revised).
  • Continuous Claims: +39K to 1.726M vs. 1.690M consensus, 1.687M prior (unrevised).


A slowdown in retail sales would be yet another sign of coming recession. Not happening yet.


Retail sales come in hot

  • July Retail Sales: +0.7% M/M vs. +0.3% consensus; +0.3% prior.
  • Retail Sales (less auto): +1.0% M/M vs. +0.4% consensus; +0.3% prior.
  • Core Retail Sales: +0.9% vs. +0.5% consensus; +0.6% prior (revised).
  • Retail sales control group: +1.0% vs. +0.3% consensus; +0.7% prior (revised).


Three more good economic reports on Thursday


Philly Fed outlook above expectations


Productivity beats forecast

  • Q2 Productivity and Costs: +2.3% vs. +1.5% expected, +3.5% prior (revised from +3.4%).
  • Unit labor costs: +2.4% vs. 2.0% expected, +5.5% prior (revised from -1.6%).

Empire State survey comes in surprisingly strong

  • August Empire State Manufacturing Survey: +4.8 vs. +2.5 consensus,  +4.3 prior.
  • New Orders: 6.7 vs. -1.5 prior.
  • Shipments: 9.3 vs. 7.2 prior.
  • Number of employees:  -1.6 vs. -9.6 prior.


A nice report from a bellweather retailer.


Walmart EPS beats by $0.05, beats on revenue

  • Walmart (NYSE:WMT): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.27 beats by $0.05; GAAP EPS of $1.26 beats by $0.04.
  • Revenue of $130.4B (+1.9% Y/Y) beats by $1.08B.
  • Shares -0.3% PM.


Walmart +5% after hiking profit guidance

  • Walmart (NYSE:WMT) reports comparable sales in the U.S. increased 2.8% in Q2 vs. +2.5% consensus. Transactions were up 0.6% and average ticket was 2.2% higher.
  • Total sales rose 1.8% to $130.4B. International sales fell 1.1% to $29.1B.
  • Sam's Club comparables sales were up 1.2% during the quarter vs. +0.6% consensus.
  • E-commerce sales were up 37% against a strong comparable.
  • Operating income fell 2.9% to $5.6B.

A nice report from Alibaba.


Alibaba EPS beats by $0.34, beats on revenue

  • Alibaba (NYSE:BABA): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.83 beats by $0.34; GAAP EPS of $1.17 beats by $0.23.
  • Revenue of $16.74B (+36.9% Y/Y) beats by $880M.
  • Shares +2.4% PM.
  • 755M, up from 721M.


A terrible report from Canopy Growth. I have been warning about the cannabis stocks for a long time now.


Canopy Growth down 11% premarket on FQ1 miss as buildout continues

  • Canopy Growth (NYSE:CGC) Fiscal Q1 results:
  • Net revenue: (C$90.5M) (+249% yoy and down 4% sequentially); recreational cannabis revenue: C$50.4M.
  • Kilogram and kg equivalents sold: 10,549 (+13% sequentially).
  • Net loss: (C$1,281.2M) (-999%); loss/share: (C$3.70) (-825%) due primarily to its scale-up in Canada and Europe.
  • Non-GAAP EBITDA: (C$92.1M) (-136%).


A doomed company? I think so…


J.C. Penney EPS beats by $0.13, revenue in-line

  • J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.18 beats by $0.13; GAAP EPS of -$0.15 beats by $0.17.
  • Revenue of $2.62B (-7.4% Y/Y) in-line.
  • Shares +3.51% PM.
Bill Gunderson

Bill Gunderson

Bill Gunderson is a wealth manager, syndicated financial talk show host, and author of the Best Stocks Now -- one of the top 10 best selling financial aps in the world.

He is a frequent guest on local and national media, including CNBC, Fox Business, Fox News, Bloomberg, Barron's, Forbes, and others.

His wealth management business caters to high net worth individuals clients all over the world. He would be happy to look at your portfolio.

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